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By: Keith Dobkowski, NFL News
The NFL draft is just a few days away and the issues surrounding
the event are swarming. Will Maurice Clarett and Mike Williams
be first round picks or college juniors? Will a second Manning,
this time Eli and not Peyton, be the first pick? And most
importantly, how will your favorite team avoid the mistakes of
past draft picks that have included Rick Mirer, Ryan Leaf, Akili
Smith and Lawrence Phillips to name just a few of the dozens of
failed high picks?
The final question is our question. How can your team, or my
team (Go Niners) avoid the dreaded dud pick? And every year
there are examples. My team drafted Jim Druckenmiller in the first
round. And as you say who, I’ll tell you that we drafted Terrell
Owens in the 3rd round. Ryan Leaf was the second pick and Akili
Smith the third. Yet Terrell Davis and Tom Brady lasted till the
sixth round.
So when rating the picks, shouldn’t money be as major a factor
as a 40 time, the wonderlic test and a bench press. Shouldn’t Eli
Manning’s signing bonus be a factor in his draft status especially
due the failure rate of first round quarterbacks? Realize that
quarterbacks make more money and sign larger bonuses than
any other players. For instance, Pro Bowler Terrell Owens got a
$10 million signing bonus with the Eagles around the same time
that Pro Bowler Peyton Manning got a $34 million dollar signing
bonus.
In a league where the careers are short, the injuries are brutal
and the salary cap is hard, isn’t it worth taking the surest bet and
the safest bet when given the opportunity. Why risk a
quarterback and the cost of the number one pick when the odds
are against you? Actually, why risk a quarterback at all in the first
round when the cost and risk are so great?
Look no further than 1999 draft when the greatest quarterback
class since the early eighties occurred. Tim Couch was the first
pick and a “can’t miss” out of Kentucky. The same Tim Couch who
lost his job to Kelly Holcombe and now Jeff Garcia, who by the
way was never even drafted but rather salvaged from the CFL.
The second pick, Donovan McNabb has been a complete success
in all eyes, other than Rush’s, and he just got his first receiver.
The third pick was Akili Smith and he like Cade McNown; the
twelfth pick is no longer in the league. And Daunte Culpepper,
sandwiched between Smith and McNown has shown glimpses of
stardom. That’s two, and generous two counting Culpepper, out
of five making for a 40% success rate.
40% is great in baseball and now seems to be average in
basketball, but should be a failure everywhere else including the
first round of the NFL draft.
Add to that Joe Montana was a third round pick and four time
Super Bowl Winner. Tom Brady was a sixth round pick and two-
time Super Bowl winner. And Kurt Warner went undrafted and
won a Super Bowl. Jeff Garcia was undrafted yet now holds the
49ers’ records for most yards passed in a season and most
touchdowns thrown in a season. Garcia also had three straight
pro bowl years.
In no way am I discounting number one picks that win it all,
namely John Elway, Troy Aikman and Terry Bradshaw. But for the
most part and especially of late, it is another player and or late
round quarterback who serves as Super bowl hero.
With that said, a change of theory is needed. Or maybe just a
refresher course on the greatest mind football has known. Bill
Walsh, creator of the west coast offense, was a steady believer
in quantity. Walsh often traded down for more picks that
inevitably turned into greater draft classes. Odds were in Walsh’
s favor.
Walsh not only built the 49ers who steamrolled through the
eighties, but rebuilt the Niners recently after two years in the
funk. With a CFL champion quarterback in Garcia and a defense
full of rookies drafted using Walsh’s quantity theory, the Niners
went from 6-12 to 12-4 in one season. Walsh traded down for
more draft picks and got his money’s worth.
So as we enter this year’s draft, two options face our teams.
Take the conservative route and draft a player that will contribute
this year, but who plays a smaller signing bonus position with a
lesser chance of getting injured, say safety, or trade down.
Thus we are left with predictions. The first pick should be only
one of two possible players, Robert Gallery, the tackle from Iowa
or Sean Taylor, the safety from Miami. Neither plays a position
that is hit blindsided, sans the Warren Sapp hit last year on the
offensive lineman from Greenbay. And neither will demand the
signing bonus of a quarterback.
Finally, my hometown team needs a receiver in the worst way but
the NFL is all about the line. The best line on either side will win
the game. Therefore the Niners should step forward and draft
the best available offensive linemen or defensive tackle. That
being said, our man is Vince Wilfork, the defensive tackle from
Miami.
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